Andy Swan

Lessons from Billy Mays

June 29, 2009 – 10:43 am
Here is his son's twitter announcing it.  And a twitpic of him the night before, celebrating a good Conan appearence with his family. So I got to thinking....isn't it weird that a commercial salesman's death is even a news event, much less a really big deal like this one is? Well, there are reasons why the world loved Billy Mays....and these are the same reasons he was so successful: Smile: No one wants to be around a downer.  Billy always seemed to be happy.  Smiles are contagous and people want to be around (or watch) people that make them smile. Sell: Billy was trying to sell you a product, and you knew it.  Nothing shady, just telling the story of the product in his hand.  People don't mind being sold to...in fact, we insist on it.  Just don't try to hide it as something it's not. Passion: When someone is passionate about what they do, ...

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Celebrity version of Friday thoughts…..

June 26, 2009 – 10:12 am
Celebrity deaths: OK, they come in threes, I concede.  I do not mourn Micheal Jackson.  His brilliance died decades ago.  In addition, death does not add value to life, unless it is a death of honor and/or sacrifice. The guy was a pedophile and no one who hurts children will get my sympathy or respect.  I mean....come on....he built his own version of Disney World in order to lure his prey.  Good songs though and I get that most "mourners" are really mourning the part of their lives where his music served as the soundtrack...all good. Celebrity presidents: Hey...the greatest president of the 20th century was an actor, so maybe we've got a chance here afterall. Celebrity music:  Pandora might just change your life, assuming you have an attention span greater than a goldfish. Celebrity compensation:   Celebrities are paid EXACTLY what they are worth.  Only an idiot would argue otherwise, so I look forward ...

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Build a better mousetrap

June 25, 2009 – 4:56 pm
There are two ways to start a new business and have a chance at success: First, you could come up with a revolutionary idea that no one else is doing. This is the typical dream....the billion dollar invention, etc.  Disrupt markets, change people's lives, be a business hero and become wealthy. Unfortunately, this is extremely difficult to do, and results in failure almost every time.  Why?  Because you have to teach a whole new way of thinking to your potential customer.  You don't just have to sell them on your product, but you have to sell them on a whole new concept.  In other words, you need them to change, and you also need them to admit that what they have been doing/using/whatever isn't good enough.  That's tough. In general, if something doesn't exist, it's because no one wants it.** The other way to go is to forget about trying to come up with ...

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Learn from Iranian protest failure

June 24, 2009 – 8:19 am
The Iranian election protests will fail.  The current regime will remain in power, and become more powerful in the end. Two things make me think this: 1)  The Iranian people do not have the right to own guns. Without arms, the citizens of Iran cannot use force against their government, which can and does use force against them.  An unarmed society is 100% vulnerable to the whims of the few who command its government. The only thing they can do is shout in the streets and hope to gain the favor of world opinion.  Unfortunately, this is almost useless right now, because.... 2)  The world is currently in "play nice so you don't upset anyone" mode. The world wants to sit and talk.  Negotiate.  Oddly, many feel that in order to negotiate successfully, the other side must like you.  Even more strangely, some believe it is possible to get Iran to like us. In any event, ...

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Propped for entry…hopefully again

June 22, 2009 – 11:00 pm
This kicked in, after Friday's meaningless prop-up, which led me into this trade....which was sweet (now, I still have a small position in FTK, which got killed today, so don't think I'm batting a thousand here haha) So, now what?  Eh....it's dollars, then oil and then equities in my opinion, so you have to know what's moving markets.  Hint:  it's not earnings.  Unfortunately, those days are long gone. 875-885 was pretty tough on the way up and it could be again on the way down, especially as we approach the end of the quarter, where fund managers trick their clients into thinking they are geniuses that have owned the names that made headlines lately. So, short entry isn't a great idea here in my opinion.  In fact, I'm probably going to take the rest of the month VERY lightly and see if we can get another prop-up setup like last Friday.

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Today’s tape is CLOSE to meaningless

June 19, 2009 – 11:45 am
If I may be so bold as to point out that today is triple-witching Friday. For home gamers, that's the day when a bunch of rich corporations rape option buyers of all varieties via seemingly dumb, but ultimately wise, purchases of S&P futures contracts. In other words, the market is being manipulated so that the retail trader ends up with a zero. Paying attention to today's tape is like watching the final game of the NFL season, in the hopes of developing a playoff betting strategy. p.s. Joe Kinahan of thinkorswim will be on CNBC at 1:30 PM ET, discussing this very topic.

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Wheelhouse Investing

June 19, 2009 – 1:34 am
Investing, especially privately, is very differnet from trading (which is more of a sport or game than anything) When you invest, you are adding value to a company by providing it with the capital it needs to execute its plan. This normally doesn't work out.  Money for the sake of money helps, but I think it's rarely enough to "take things to the next level", as morons might say.  (Note to morons, there are no levels.) On the other hand, if you can invest in a company where your money helps, but your involvement is beneficial as well.....then you're really onto something.  You're paying yourself for your expertise, because your investment has appreciated the moment you sign the papers, due to your own involvement in the company. Not insignificantly, it's also an amazing way to allow others to profit from your expertise and experience in ways that you would have never thought of on ...

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Recognize what trading REALLY is (and then dominate it)

June 19, 2009 – 1:15 am
Trading:  In and out of ownership in companies in a matter of days or even minutes.  You really are adding no value to anything.  In essence, you're just trying to take money from someone else....in a legal, honorable and honest manner. There is nothing wrong with that, but it's important to recognize what you're really doing. This is why you need to be great at it if you're going to do it. Constantly improving.  Defending what is yours and aggressively capitalizing on the mistakes of others. This is not a game for the lazy.  If you're looking for a lotto-ticket to fast money, you're better off buying a lotto ticket. If you're looking for something that is a challenge, that you can improve at, and that you can compete to win at....you're in the right place. The greatest traders in the world have lost massive amounts of money so quickly it made them puke....literally....and they ...

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Yuor bairn deonst crae aubot sepllnig

June 18, 2009 – 12:53 pm
It is a mtater of fcat taht wehn you raed, you pertty mcuh get erevyhitng you need from jsut the frist and lsat letter of ecah wrod on the pgae. Tihs is povren by the fact you can raed this qicukly. Sometimes details aren't nearly as important as you think they are.

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7 traders I’m following VERY closely on mytrade

June 17, 2009 – 11:59 pm
Here are some people who I'm really watching closely as they share their real trades on mytrade: Randolph:  A great nose for the markets.  Shares trades and commentary constantly, with emphasis on understanding the role of the VIX in trading. VerticalOptions:  I like the focus on verticals and he's got some really nice trades going.  Always provides reasoning. Nick Fenton:   A personal friend and a heck of a trader.  Just legged in and out of an iron condor in almost perfect fashion.  Excellent follow. JC Victory: High-probability Iron Condor trader with an eye on the indexes. Ryan: Keeps everyone in the loop on his thoughts, portfolio and shares some really great trades. Steve: Good options spreads on popular names. Manitou Mike:   Very active trader on small cap names and has developed a good reputation quickly on mytrade. Actually, there are a ton more I really like, and will get to later. Remember, you learn by DOING.  So don't be ...

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