Andy Swan » Thoughts, as they come

Thoughts, as they come

May 8, 2009 – 2:07 pm

Market: Rally is crushing many bears. I’m definitely playing against the tide here, with several puts on SPY. Next week is expiration, and there is a ton of open interest 3-4% below us that could pull the market lower, despite the amazing uptrend that becomes much more believable on the 3rd day that you’ve bet against it.

KFC Grilled Chicken: It’s good…of course so is their fried chicken. In any event, I don’t see how one can justify standing in line for 90 minutes to get it, but that’s their call and I’m glad KFC has decided to mail out coupons on a rolling basis instead. Moral of the story…Oprah can crush the uptime of any business.

Stress Tests: I’m not even getting into this, because I find myself closer and closer to “conspiracy nut” than ever before. I think I could use a few days in Vegas (next week).

Budget: The way Obama is championing the $17b in “cuts” on this record $3.2T budget reminds me of when my wife comes home from shopping and leads off with how much she “saved”. Always trouble.

Bourbon: Bookers vs. Pappy 15yo is the current matchup in the Swan house. It’ll take a few more nights of testing, but it’s damn close.

Blogging: Honestly, this shit is getting old. Twitter/mytrade has ruined it for me….too easy to push out a quick thought and too hard to write something here that is thought-provoking.

War: Never go into battle with an enemy that you aren’t willing to completely crush. This is the lesson of Vietnam, the lesson of “mission accomplished” in Iraq, etc. If you aren’t willing to destroy the enemy, then you probably don’t have a justifiable reason for fighting.

That’s all I got.

JakeGint

"Bookers vs. Pappy 15yo is the current matchup in the Swan house. It’ll take a few more nights of testing, but it’s damn close."

Where is Woodford in your spectrum here?

andyswan

Maybe top 12

Gregg

Hi Andy- Just wondering what you're looking at specifically to suggest this large amount of open intrst that suggests 3-4% downside risk ... would appreciate your insight- G

andyswan

SPY may option chain....

Also some of the more influential individual stocks may chain.

Traveling right now so can't get specific but look at open int of the SPY 86-90 calls vs 91-94 calls. Put side is so weak it doesn't play a role until we get spy 90 oor even 89!

greenskeptic

Good thoughts. Esp the part about blogging vs. twitter.

I wonder what the world would have been like had Bush I taken out Saddam in the first Gulf War, when he had the chance and the support of the Iraqi people...but he didn't pull the trigger.

Don't eat too much KFC while gambling in Vegas. Fried chicken, stress tests, and gaming tables do not a good combo make.

andyswan

If Bush had taken out Saddam in the first Gulf war, we'd probably be
bitching about year 19 in Iraq instead of year 6. :)